TWXO and Synopsis July 10, 2007

[TStorm2]

NHC Tropical Wx Outlook

The tropics still remain fairly tranquil this morning.
Some convective activity is noted near Central
America near 11N; 82W. This is associated with a
westward moving tropical wave. This does appear to
have decent cyclonic turning in the mid levels, and is
currently moving north of due west. This area is
currently under somewhat favorable upper level winds,
however I expect that this will move over into the
eastern Pacific basin within the next 48-72 hours.

Convection is noted off the NC coast, and is most
likely attributed to diffluent flow between the ridge
to its west, and the departing shortwave trof to its
east.

West Atlantic IR Loop

Tropical waves were analyzed earlier near longitude
21W, 48W, 60W, 72W, and 90W. It appears that the wave
near 48W has moved to around 53-55W and is approaching
the Lesser Antilles. This wave is starting to
encounter some strong shear, and I expect will meet
its demise over the next 72 hours or so.

Central Atlantic IR Loop

Dry air still dominates most of the Atlantic basin,
though it has lessened in the southern Caribbean and
far eastern Atlantic. A Mid Level Low is noticed on
water vapor imagery, in the dry air just north of the
Lesser Antilles and Hispaniola. Looking at 700 mb
forecast charts, a fair amount of humidity ( > 70%)is
forecast over the central portion of the African
continent for the remainder of July. Should these
humidity levels continue, it could help reduce the SAL(Saharan Air Layer).

Convection has picked up a little on the African
continent, and two small areas are getting ready to
exit the coast.

Meteosat-9

Wind shear still remains high over the Caribbean
basin(with the exception of the NW corner), and
extends eastward past the Lesser Antilles well out
into the central Atlantic. Models agree that high
shear will remain over the Caribbean for at least the
next seven days. A trof is analyzed from near
Hispaniola, and extends westward to the Gulf of
Honduras.

Wind Shear

The upward motion pulse of the MJO (Madden Julian
Oscillation) continues to move eastward and is over
the Gulf of Mexico and the majority of the Caribbean.

MJO

The MJO forecast still calls for upward motion to
remain in our part of the world until the beginning of
August, which should enhance convective activity. We
will have to watch and see how this will effect
tropical activity with downward motion in August, as
climatology shows that tropical activity starts to
ramp up in August.

MJO Forecast

The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) continues to
fall, and is now at -6.2. I am expecting a trun
around on this in about the next 7-10 days. Once this
gets back into the positive, I expect we'll see Sea
Surface Temperatures off the South American coast
decline further.

SOI

Models are in agreement of shifting the Azores /
Bermuda high westward starting in about 48 hrs. It is
forecast to weaken slightly, and hold a position over
the central Atlantic for about 7-10 days. One thign I
would like to note here, the GFS is the only model
that goes out beyond that time...and great errors can
occur that far out. But one thing concerns me...IF
the GFS forecast is right, it does move the ridge back
east, however, it weakens it to around 1022 mb. My
concern with this is, though it is shifted back to the
east, it is extremely elongated, reaching into the
Gulf of Mexico. Secondly, this weakening will help
cut down upwelling of cool water off the African coast
and eastern Atlantic, allowing for warmer water in
that area. Again, this is all based on whether the
model is correct, and the Azores / Bermuda high stays
in that state.

Another word of caution...let's not let our guard
down...yes, it's been quiet, but that's normal for
June and July. Remember 1998...activity didn't pick
up until August, when 10 tropical storms formed in a
35 DAY TIME SPAN between August 19 - September 23.
That season produced 14 storms. And, I would add,
there was some residual warm water in the Pacific from
the demising El Nino of the previous year...which was
one factor of very high shear during June and July of
1998. We are still expecting moderate La Nina
conditions to take hold over the next few months.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.

[TStorm2]

Any Questions?

[saywhat!]

Luv the effort TStorm Thanks for keeping us educated

[lochnessmonster]

Yes I do have a question... what do all the things in your subtitles mean?
NHC
Wx
IR
MJO
SOI
Meteosat-9